January 2011 Talks in Istanbul: Timeline

• JANUARY 18, 2011: WallStreet Journal: Although both countries of Germany and Italy agreed last summer to support new European Union sanctions against Iran, the latest data show that both countries have increased their trade with the Islamic Republic. As Tehran continues its illicit nuclear program, Berlin and Rome are extending a commercial life line to Iran. Despite Chancellor Angela Merkel's repeated promises to reduce trade with the mullahs, German imports from Iran climbed to €690 million in the first 10 months of last year, surpassing by 28% the total 2009 import volume of €538.
•  Jan 17, 2011: AFP: Ahmadinejad, Medvedev agree to boost ties
• January 21, 2011: Iran and 5+1 diplomats meet in Istanbul, Turkey, and discuss various issues including a Uranium Swap deal and lifting sanctions on Iran. There is also strong, but unsuccessful, tendency from the American side to meet directly with the reluctant Iranian delegation.  
• January 22, 2011: Iranian and 5+1 delegations discuss the chances for the Swap deal for the Lifting of the Sanctions, but it fails and they end talks with apparently no clear agreement except for the possibility of more talks in the future. 
• The future discussions seems to be over the issue of Iranian Nuclear Swap with Russia and possibly France and easing of some sanctions on Iran. 

BBG Organizational Chart

America and the rise of middle powers / Stephen Kinzer

The dramatic rise of Turkey in the councils of world power was one of the main geopolitical developments of 2010. Iran's emergence as a serious regional power was another. They are harbingers of what will be one of the main trends of global power in coming decades: the rise of middle powers.

This era is an exciting one for rising countries. Their drive to assert themselves, though, poses an inevitable challenge to powers accustomed to dominating the world, chiefly the United States.

One of the immutable patterns of history is the rise and fall of great powers. Those that survive are the ones that adapt as the world changes. Thus far, however, the US shows little sign that it is willing to accommodate the rise of middle powers. American leaders are frozen into denial and caught in a straitjacket of policies shaped for another era. Unless they can become more nimble, the US risks losing both global influence and domestic prosperity.

U.S. Approved Business With Iran

NY Times piece on U.S. business with countries (e.g. Iran) that are supposed to be sanctioned reminds me of a note in Kenneth Pollack's Persian Puzzle where he mentioned the same economic behavior by the U.S. as one of the major reasons for sanctions to lead nowhere. He said that in the 1990s when Clinton asked his European allies to act more vigorously on Iran, they were a bit skeptical of the plan, since they could see that American companies, at the very same time, were doing business with Iran. It brought cracks to the alliance Clinton was looking for. The present story is sending the same message again. Now, here is the question: what is the reason for those who managed to publish the story in the front runner NY Times?what is the intention at this significant moment? and is it going to break up the alliance again? SEE:

U.S. Approved Business With Blacklisted Nations

Two major events ahead of the P5+1 talks

There are two major events happening ahead of the P5+1 talks with Iran (in January):
1- Ahmadinejad's (and other Iranian politicians') visit to Turkey
2- Ratification  of the new Start Treaty in the U.S.
Iranian politicians (from Velayati, Supreme Leader's advisor,  to Ahmadinejad and his close confidante Mashayee) have lately paid visits to Turkey and have met with Turkish statesmen. There, the nuclear as well as other regional and economic issues have been on the table. It is expected that Turkey play its intermediary role in a positive way in January.
On the other hand, Obama has been able to reach an agreement with the Congress to pass the New Start Treaty with Russia. It will be a good card in the hands of Obama when P5+1 sits down with Iranians and Turks to decide on the near future of Iranian nuclear program.SEE

US-Russia 'reset' on track

Turkey, Iran ties constructive, fraternal

The real substance of the Geneva Talks

There have been many side-stories about the Geneva Talks held between Iran and P5+1 on December 5th, but perhaps the most significant is the hint on EU's acceptance of Iran's right to continue its low enrichment program- of course under strict supervision by the IAEA. This however needs to be confirmed and finalized in the next round of talks in Istanbul. There is a one month period in between pregnant with diplomatic hustles by many players involved in order to see similar/different outcome. SEE:

EU offering to okay Iran nuclear program

United States' Clinton and Iran's Mottaki at Manama Dialogue

American Move:


Iranian Response;